V-Lab
Mas Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,916.02
decreased by 1,171.07
1 Week
6,981.27
decreased by 105.82
1 Month
5,360.91
decreased by 1,726.18
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2012 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 31.9653 | 1.95* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2129 | 6.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6425 | 7.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 4.2108 | 9.92*** |
| γ2 | -5.4698 | -6.28*** |
| γ3 | 2.3010 | 2.08** |
| γ4 | -1.0302 | -1.28 |
| γ5 | -0.4755 | -1.10 |
| γ6 | 0.9211 | 3.17*** |
| γ7 | -0.9500 | -4.00*** |
| γ8 | 1.8364 | 6.22*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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