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V-Lab

Mas Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

5,916.02

decreased by 1,171.07

1 Week

6,981.27

decreased by 105.82

1 Month

5,360.91

decreased by 1,726.18

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mas Plc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2012 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.9653
1.95*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2129
6.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6425
7.19***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ14.2108
9.92***
γ2-5.4698
-6.28***
γ32.3010
2.08**
γ4-1.0302
-1.28
γ5-0.4755
-1.10
γ60.9211
3.17***
γ7-0.9500
-4.00***
γ81.8364
6.22***

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days