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Mas Plc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

6,991.14

decreased by 1,112.29

1 Week

7,712.09

decreased by 391.34

1 Month

5,707.25

decreased by 2,396.18

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Mas Plc ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2012 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2468
0.58
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8151
76.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1238
-0.16
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1208
0.60
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.33
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.56

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days