Mntn Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
5,526.76
increased by 616.80
1 Week
4,720.46
decreased by 189.50
1 Month
3,612.74
decreased by 1,297.22
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 22, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1969 | 6.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0919 | 2.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8627 | 18.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3335 | -2.49** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1969 | 6.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0919 | 2.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8627 | 18.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3335 | -2.49** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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