V-Lab
Megastar Foods Lim Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
10,006.61
increased by 4,019.32
1 Week
5,495.75
decreased by 491.54
1 Month
3,041.13
decreased by 2,946.16
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 24, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3209 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1859 | 7.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8007 | 21.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -1.8052 | -3.72*** |
| γ2 | 2.8666 | 5.05*** |
| γ3 | -1.5645 | -3.48*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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