V-Lab
Medicare Group Qpsc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
6,253.32
increased by 1,908.88
1 Week
3,998.34
decreased by 346.10
1 Month
5,244.90
increased by 900.46
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2006 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 772 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3457 | 2.10** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3546 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6445 | 7.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.3140 | 0.86 |
| γ2 | -10.8579 | -1.99** |
| γ3 | 25.4376 | 2.32** |
| γ4 | -24.8604 | -2.42** |
| γ5 | 11.8490 | 2.82*** |
| γ6 | -6.8813 | -3.09*** |
| γ7 | 9.3058 | 3.64*** |
| γ8 | -10.1829 | -3.11*** |
| γ9 | 7.3308 | 2.51** |
| γ10 | -3.0867 | -1.34 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
772 days
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