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Medicare Group Qpsc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

6,253.32

increased by 1,908.88

1 Week

3,998.34

decreased by 346.10

1 Month

5,244.90

increased by 900.46

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Medicare Group Qpsc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2006 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 772 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3457
2.10**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3546
4.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6445
7.74***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.3140
0.86
γ2-10.8579
-1.99**
γ325.4376
2.32**
γ4-24.8604
-2.42**
γ511.8490
2.82***
γ6-6.8813
-3.09***
γ79.3058
3.64***
γ8-10.1829
-3.11***
γ97.3308
2.51**
γ10-3.0867
-1.34

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

772 days