V-Lab
Medicare Group Qpsc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
4,956.00
increased by 3,733.91
1 Week
2,231.65
increased by 1,009.56
1 Month
4,016.42
increased by 2,794.33
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2006 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0174 | 3.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7739 | 11.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4174 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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