V-Lab
Mannai Corp QSC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
3,229.14
increased by 423.45
1 Week
2,568.81
decreased by 236.88
1 Month
4,450.43
increased by 1,644.74
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 25, 2007 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 42.1541 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2246 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7754 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -4.7261 | |
| γ2 | 8.1657 | |
| γ3 | -5.0985 | |
| γ4 | 1.7394 | |
| γ5 | 0.6767 | |
| γ6 | -5.9190 | |
| γ7 | 12.7116 | |
| γ8 | -12.8280 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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