V-Lab
Mannai Corp QSC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
8,340.47
1 Week
8,382.67
1 Month
9,322.77
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 25, 2007 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 270 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0544 | 1.75* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9702 | 524.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0544 | -0.89 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9985 | 786.82*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
270 days
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