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V-Lab

Mo-Bruk Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

7,159.46

increased by 656.94

1 Week

6,784.92

increased by 282.40

1 Month

7,069.33

increased by 566.81

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mo-Bruk Sa ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 17, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0332
2.02**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0854
4.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8664
23.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.4394
0.37
γ2-0.0348
-0.02
γ3-1.1916
-0.82
γ40.4248
0.28
γ5-2.0082
-1.40
γ66.3645
6.17***
γ7-5.5940
-6.72***
γ82.2800
3.14***
γ9-1.1342
-2.09**
γ100.9097
1.34

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days