V-Lab
Mo-Bruk Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
7,159.46
increased by 656.94
1 Week
6,784.92
increased by 282.40
1 Month
7,069.33
increased by 566.81
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0332 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0854 | 4.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8664 | 23.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4394 | 0.37 |
| γ2 | -0.0348 | -0.02 |
| γ3 | -1.1916 | -0.82 |
| γ4 | 0.4248 | 0.28 |
| γ5 | -2.0082 | -1.40 |
| γ6 | 6.3645 | 6.17*** |
| γ7 | -5.5940 | -6.72*** |
| γ8 | 2.2800 | 3.14*** |
| γ9 | -1.1342 | -2.09** |
| γ10 | 0.9097 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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