V-Lab
Lolc Finance Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
9,450.66
increased by 4,971.83
1 Week
5,392.81
increased by 913.98
1 Month
6,621.75
increased by 2,142.92
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 7701 trading days (~30.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~7701 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7005 | 2.14** |
| αARCH | 0.3622 | 0.30 |
| βGARCH | 0.6378 | 0.52 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0667 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | -2.7063 | -0.71 |
| γ3 | 3.9262 | 1.73* |
| γ4 | -1.3978 | -0.82 |
| γ5 | 0.3414 | 0.26 |
| γ6 | -1.5904 | -1.68* |
| γ7 | 3.3159 | 3.57*** |
| γ8 | -2.1089 | -1.65* |
| γ9 | 0.2204 | 0.14 |
| γ10 | 1.0374 | 0.58 |
1.000
Persistence7701d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7005 | 2.14** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3622 | 0.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6378 | 0.52 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0667 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | -2.7063 | -0.71 |
| γ3 | 3.9262 | 1.73* |
| γ4 | -1.3978 | -0.82 |
| γ5 | 0.3414 | 0.26 |
| γ6 | -1.5904 | -1.68* |
| γ7 | 3.3159 | 3.57*** |
| γ8 | -2.1089 | -1.65* |
| γ9 | 0.2204 | 0.14 |
| γ10 | 1.0374 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
7701 days
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