V-Lab
Lolc Finance Plc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
8,236.12
increased by 6,662.64
1 Week
3,317.28
increased by 1,743.80
1 Month
2,172.93
increased by 599.45
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0585 | 0.21 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8365 | 2.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2099 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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