V-Lab
Chicago Atlantic BDC Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
7,490.16
decreased by 1,431.25
1 Week
7,638.46
decreased by 1,282.95
1 Month
9,469.03
increased by 547.62
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0174 | 3.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1692 | 3.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5764 | 5.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -3.8754 | -5.92*** |
| γ2 | 5.4295 | 5.98*** |
| γ3 | -2.3491 | -4.07*** |
| γ4 | 1.1481 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.746
Half-life:
2 days
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