V-Lab
Chicago Atlantic BDC Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
18,225.87
decreased by 1,685.47
1 Week
18,262.30
decreased by 1,649.04
1 Month
17,831.06
decreased by 2,080.28
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0610 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1709 | 3.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5520 | 5.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -3.6071 | -6.17*** |
| γ2 | 5.1966 | 6.40*** |
| γ3 | -2.6416 | -5.18*** |
| γ4 | 1.9977 | 3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.723
Half-life:
2 days
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