Chicago Atlantic BDC Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
11,770.89
1 Week
14,055.81
1 Month
13,113.39
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1986 | 2.06** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6509 | 90.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1986 | -0.96 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3815 | 3.80*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5251 | 4.40*** |
Persistence:
0.750
Half-life:
2 days
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