LH Financial Group PCL Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
6,536.21
increased by 3,160.15
1 Week
3,534.56
increased by 158.50
1 Month
2,448.71
decreased by 927.35
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2011 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6573 | 6.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1564 | 10.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8207 | 50.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3532 | -4.52*** |
| γ2 | 0.7646 | 5.67*** |
| γ3 | -0.7614 | -6.52*** |
| γ4 | 0.6637 | 6.64*** |
| γ5 | -0.7597 | -5.50*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6573 | 6.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1564 | 10.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8207 | 50.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3532 | -4.52*** |
| γ2 | 0.7646 | 5.67*** |
| γ3 | -0.7614 | -6.52*** |
| γ4 | 0.6637 | 6.64*** |
| γ5 | -0.7597 | -5.50*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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