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LH Financial Group PCL Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

6,536.21

increased by 3,160.15

1 Week

3,534.56

increased by 158.50

1 Month

2,448.71

decreased by 927.35

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LH Financial Group PCL ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2011 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6573
6.44***
αARCH0.1564
10.18***
βGARCH0.8207
50.00***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.3532
-4.52***
γ20.7646
5.67***
γ3-0.7614
-6.52***
γ40.6637
6.64***
γ5-0.7597
-5.50***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6573
6.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1564
10.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8207
50.00***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.3532
-4.52***
γ20.7646
5.67***
γ3-0.7614
-6.52***
γ40.6637
6.64***
γ5-0.7597
-5.50***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days