V-Lab
Laxmi Goldorna House Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
12,060.79
increased by 3,280.91
1 Week
8,426.63
decreased by 353.25
1 Month
4,332.52
decreased by 4,447.36
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2020 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2525 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2319 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7681 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2868 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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