V-Lab
Liberty Gold Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
24,925.71
increased by 3,021.36
1 Week
23,075.50
increased by 1,171.15
1 Month
24,247.47
increased by 2,343.12
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 65 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1826 | 4.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1361 | 9.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8533 | 61.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0728 | 1.30 |
| γ2 | -0.2573 | -3.03*** |
| γ3 | 0.4557 | 7.34*** |
| γ4 | -0.7621 | -8.17*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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