V-Lab
Liberty Gold Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
14,714.74
decreased by 1,682.68
1 Week
16,465.81
increased by 68.39
1 Month
23,185.13
increased by 6,787.71
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 64 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1806 | 4.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1363 | 9.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8529 | 61.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0722 | 1.31 |
| γ2 | -0.2551 | -3.03*** |
| γ3 | 0.4527 | 7.38*** |
| γ4 | -0.7697 | -8.28*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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