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V-Lab

Le Merite Exports Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

3,242.36

decreased by 100.73

1 Week

3,431.22

increased by 88.13

1 Month

3,441.22

increased by 98.13

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Le Merite Exports Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 9, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9151
5.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2330
4.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6471
9.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ13.4627
2.30**
γ2-8.4952
-3.88***
γ33.9354
2.03**
γ47.3627
3.21***
γ5-13.5797
-4.40***
γ618.3726
3.52***

Persistence:

0.880

Half-life:

5 days