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Le Merite Exports Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

2,291.18

decreased by 295.22

1 Week

2,651.49

increased by 65.09

1 Month

2,365.77

decreased by 220.63

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Le Merite Exports Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 9, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5623
0.03
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2427
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7573
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.8410
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days