Le Merite Exports Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
3,242.36
decreased by 100.73
1 Week
3,431.22
increased by 88.13
1 Month
3,441.22
increased by 98.13
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9151 | 5.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2330 | 4.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6471 | 9.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 3.4627 | 2.30** |
| γ2 | -8.4952 | -3.88*** |
| γ3 | 3.9354 | 2.03** |
| γ4 | 7.3627 | 3.21*** |
| γ5 | -13.5797 | -4.40*** |
| γ6 | 18.3726 | 3.52*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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