Le Merite Exports Limited ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
2,776.00
1 Week
2,268.22
1 Month
2,735.75
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3258 | 1.33 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6969 | 85.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3258 | -0.77 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 3.34*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0147 | 4.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9683 | 68.02*** |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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