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Le Merite Exports Limited ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

2,594.07

decreased by 431.59

1 Week

3,164.55

increased by 138.89

1 Month

2,738.46

decreased by 287.20

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Le Merite Exports Limited ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 9, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3213
6.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7011
65.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0603
-0.75
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.01
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9991
371.26***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days