V-Lab
Le Merite Exports Limited ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2,594.07
1 Week
3,164.55
1 Month
2,738.46
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3213 | 6.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7011 | 65.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0603 | -0.75 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9991 | 371.26*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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