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Lubawa Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

4,766.00

decreased by 130.93

1 Week

4,882.26

decreased by 14.67

1 Month

5,127.12

increased by 230.19

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Lubawa Sa ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8130
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1037
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8963
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.2055
0.00
γ2-1.5163
0.00
γ32.4199
0.03
γ4-1.5425
-0.01
γ50.6097
0.00
γ6-0.1403
0.00
γ7-0.1950
0.00
γ80.1756
0.00
γ90.0119
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days