V-Lab
Lubawa Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
4,766.00
decreased by 130.93
1 Week
4,882.26
decreased by 14.67
1 Month
5,127.12
increased by 230.19
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8130 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1037 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8963 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2055 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -1.5163 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 2.4199 | 0.03 |
| γ4 | -1.5425 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | 0.6097 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.1403 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -0.1950 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 0.1756 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.0119 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
Other Lubawa Sa Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities