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Lubawa Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

7,214.98

decreased by 147.11

1 Week

7,351.02

decreased by 11.07

1 Month

7,535.12

increased by 173.03

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Lubawa Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1095
0.94
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9315
352.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0820
-0.35
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.20
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0017
0.64
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9952
1,431.91***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days