V-Lab
Lubawa Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
7,214.98
1 Week
7,351.02
1 Month
7,535.12
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1095 | 0.94 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9315 | 352.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0820 | -0.35 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.20 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0017 | 0.64 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9952 | 1,431.91*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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