L1 Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
10,382.09
increased by 964.54
1 Week
8,792.96
decreased by 624.59
1 Month
7,820.66
decreased by 1,596.89
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 23, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2237 | 10.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0787 | 12.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9171 | 139.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0065 | 1.95* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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