V-Lab
L1 Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
9,571.13
decreased by 189.13
1 Week
9,967.15
increased by 206.89
1 Month
8,379.06
decreased by 1,381.20
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 23, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2240 | 10.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0786 | 12.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9171 | 140.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0065 | 1.97** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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