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L1 Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

7,191.00

increased by 56.43

1 Week

7,492.29

increased by 357.72

1 Month

7,617.67

increased by 483.10

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of L1 Group Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 23, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~170 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2080
10.40***
αARCH0.0780
12.29***
βGARCH0.9180
141.92***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0057
1.75*

0.996

Persistence

170d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2080
10.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0780
12.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9180
141.92***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0057
1.75*

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

170 days