V-Lab
Kse Ltd. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
3,327.12
decreased by 211.82
1 Week
3,021.34
decreased by 517.60
1 Month
4,637.59
increased by 1,098.65
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5035 | 2.57** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2029 | 9.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7923 | 37.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -1.0398 | -8.03*** |
| γ2 | 1.5637 | 8.05*** |
| γ3 | -0.6600 | -4.45*** |
| γ4 | 0.3024 | 1.90* |
| γ5 | -0.7220 | -2.50** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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