V-Lab
Kse Ltd. ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
3,927.93
1 Week
3,718.97
1 Month
5,320.60
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 18733 trading days (~74.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1714 | 0.27 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7969 | 24.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0633 | 0.05 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.4529 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0783 | 0.32 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9217 | 22.03*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
18733 days
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