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V-Lab

Kse Ltd. ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

3,927.93

decreased by 224.57

1 Week

3,718.97

decreased by 433.53

1 Month

5,320.60

increased by 1,168.10

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Kse Ltd. ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 18733 trading days (~74.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1714
0.27
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7969
24.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0633
0.05
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

9.4529
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0783
0.32
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9217
22.03***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

18733 days