V-Lab
Kardex Holding Ag Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
4,612.05
decreased by 457.15
1 Week
5,468.55
increased by 399.35
1 Month
4,617.76
decreased by 451.44
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 2, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.7755 | 1.86* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1308 | 5.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8601 | 34.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.5567 | 6.27*** |
| γ2 | -1.0656 | -6.62*** |
| γ3 | 0.9730 | 6.79*** |
| γ4 | -0.7784 | -6.76*** |
| γ5 | 0.4588 | 4.81*** |
| γ6 | -0.1773 | -2.28** |
| γ7 | 0.0939 | 1.24 |
| γ8 | -0.1877 | -1.66* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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