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Kardex Holding Ag Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

4,612.05

decreased by 457.15

1 Week

5,468.55

increased by 399.35

1 Month

4,617.76

decreased by 451.44

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Kardex Holding Ag ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 2, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.7755
1.86*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1308
5.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8601
34.96***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.5567
6.27***
γ2-1.0656
-6.62***
γ30.9730
6.79***
γ4-0.7784
-6.76***
γ50.4588
4.81***
γ6-0.1773
-2.28**
γ70.0939
1.24
γ8-0.1877
-1.66*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days