V-Lab
Kardex Holding Ag ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
4,863.18
1 Week
5,926.79
1 Month
4,952.44
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 2, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 414 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1537 | 0.90 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8347 | 52.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0199 | 0.06 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1907 | 15.34*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8093 | 4.31*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
414 days
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