V-Lab
Johnson Service Group PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
4,831.65
decreased by 377.92
1 Week
5,410.41
increased by 200.84
1 Month
5,067.10
decreased by 142.47
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 2, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 204 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5666 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0771 | 5.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9195 | 65.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2093 | -0.99 |
| γ2 | 0.2338 | 0.82 |
| γ3 | -0.5708 | -1.03 |
| γ4 | 1.7900 | 1.37 |
| γ5 | -1.8499 | -1.47 |
| γ6 | 0.2588 | 0.43 |
| γ7 | 0.7755 | 1.52 |
| γ8 | -0.6254 | -1.59 |
| γ9 | 0.2170 | 0.85 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
204 days
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