V-Lab
Turkiye Is Bankasi As Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
7,103.76
decreased by 535.52
1 Week
7,994.43
increased by 355.15
1 Month
9,677.53
increased by 2,038.25
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 53319 trading days (~211.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8126 | 1.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1121 | 0.11 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8879 | 0.90 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1200 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | -0.3511 | -0.12 |
| γ3 | 0.2208 | 0.02 |
| γ4 | 0.3986 | 0.14 |
| γ5 | -0.6607 | -0.61 |
| γ6 | 0.0453 | 0.08 |
| γ7 | 0.4934 | 0.63 |
| γ8 | -0.3324 | -0.27 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
53319 days
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