V-Lab
Turkiye Is Bankasi As ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
6,849.42
1 Week
7,540.18
1 Month
8,312.10
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0927 | 0.51 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7811 | 67.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0927 | -0.24 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8209 | 0.69 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1791 | 0.35 |
Persistence:
0.827
Half-life:
4 days
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