V-Lab
Ikoma Technologies Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
10,612.80
decreased by 2,538.07
1 Week
11,478.53
decreased by 1,672.34
1 Month
8,026.86
decreased by 5,124.01
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3938 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7079 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2921 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -174.7067 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 222.7691 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -54.8854 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 20.6187 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -22.1230 | -0.06 |
| γ6 | 33.8999 | 0.05 |
| γ7 | -66.4189 | -0.06 |
| γ8 | 78.4812 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
Other Ikoma Technologies Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities