V-Lab
Ikoma Technologies Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026
1 Day
5,409.39
1 Week
4,814.02
1 Month
7,334.44
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2023 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 691 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7403 | 10.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3103 | 14.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1032 | -0.90 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.9982 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9999 | 1.56 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0001 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
691 days
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