V-Lab
Ikoma Technologies Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
8,641.27
1 Week
9,490.21
1 Month
7,194.45
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 674 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7512 | 10.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3118 | 34.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1280 | -0.98 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9999 | 12.55*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0001 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
674 days
Other Ikoma Technologies Ltd Analyses
Other ILLIQ-MFMEM Analyses on International Equities