Indonesia Pondasi Raya TBK Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
11,327.76
increased by 5,325.17
1 Week
6,988.51
increased by 985.92
1 Month
3,433.40
decreased by 2,569.19
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2015 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2684 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1698 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8302 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 5.2734 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -9.1711 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 2.5455 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -0.1365 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -4.5774 | -0.04 |
| γ6 | 23.2252 | 0.02 |
| γ7 | -30.1751 | -0.01 |
| γ8 | 18.2873 | 0.01 |
| γ9 | -10.8487 | -0.01 |
| γ10 | 14.5526 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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