V-Lab
Indonesia Pondasi Raya TBK Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
8,488.10
decreased by 1,091.64
1 Week
9,646.35
increased by 66.61
1 Month
8,881.83
decreased by 697.91
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4019 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1706 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8294 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 4.9843 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -8.8229 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 2.8602 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -1.0357 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | -3.0276 | -0.01 |
| γ6 | 21.4116 | 0.02 |
| γ7 | -29.6195 | -0.01 |
| γ8 | 19.3466 | 0.01 |
| γ9 | -12.6312 | -0.01 |
| γ10 | 17.7119 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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