V-Lab
Indonesia Pondasi Raya TBK Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
3,990.33
decreased by 535.93
1 Week
4,806.87
increased by 280.61
1 Month
4,911.95
increased by 385.69
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0854 | 2.40** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1065 | 5.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8694 | 72.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0483 | 0.97 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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