V-Lab
Iba - Ion Beam Applications Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
65,610.35
increased by 21,166.38
1 Week
44,322.61
decreased by 121.36
1 Month
40,445.91
decreased by 3,998.06
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9286 | 6.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1113 | 0.34 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8887 | 2.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0032 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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