V-Lab
Iba - Ion Beam Applications Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
39,176.60
decreased by 3,652.02
1 Week
44,241.75
increased by 1,413.13
1 Month
43,683.09
increased by 854.47
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~173286 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9167 | 3.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.1112 | 0.13 |
| βGARCH | 0.8888 | 1.08 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0044 | -0.01 |
1.000
Persistence173286d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9167 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1112 | 0.13 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8888 | 1.08 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0044 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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