V-Lab
Iba - Ion Beam Applications Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
41,670.84
decreased by 1,273.24
1 Week
44,314.94
increased by 1,370.86
1 Month
49,125.67
increased by 6,181.59
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1998 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8858 | 6.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1104 | 0.63 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8896 | 5.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0036 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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