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Iba - Ion Beam Applications Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

74,305.29

increased by 18,929.98

1 Week

60,554.03

increased by 5,178.72

1 Month

50,013.62

decreased by 5,361.69

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Iba - Ion Beam Applications ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 24, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~69314 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9254
7.47***
αARCH0.1108
1.47
βGARCH0.8892
11.84***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0028
-0.06

1.000

Persistence

69314d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9254
7.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1108
1.47
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8892
11.84***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0028
-0.06

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

69314 days