Iba - Ion Beam Applications Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
74,305.29
increased by 18,929.98
1 Week
60,554.03
increased by 5,178.72
1 Month
50,013.62
decreased by 5,361.69
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~69314 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9254 | 7.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.1108 | 1.47 |
| βGARCH | 0.8892 | 11.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0028 | -0.06 |
1.000
Persistence69314d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9254 | 7.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1108 | 1.47 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8892 | 11.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0028 | -0.06 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
Other Iba - Ion Beam Applications Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities