Iba - Ion Beam Applications ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
39,435.02
1 Week
41,707.31
1 Month
36,512.67
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1195 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7644 | 3.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1195 | -0.02 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3509 | 0.07 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6491 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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