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Iba - Ion Beam Applications ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

33,102.77

decreased by 3,821.16

1 Week

39,260.98

increased by 2,337.05

1 Month

39,501.25

increased by 2,577.32

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Iba - Ion Beam Applications ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 24, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.1195
10.57***
βGARCH0.7621
24.78***
γleverage-0.1195
-6.49***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.13
λ₂forecast adj.0.3600
5.19***
λ₃tau persistence0.6400
9.64***

0.822

Persistence

4d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1195
10.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7621
24.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1195
-6.49***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.13
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3600
5.19***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6400
9.64***

Persistence:

0.822

Half-life:

4 days