V-Lab
Iba - Ion Beam Applications ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
33,102.77
1 Week
39,260.98
1 Month
39,501.25
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.1195 | 10.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7621 | 24.78*** |
| γleverage | -0.1195 | -6.49*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.13 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3600 | 5.19*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6400 | 9.64*** |
0.822
Persistence4d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1195 | 10.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7621 | 24.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1195 | -6.49*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3600 | 5.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6400 | 9.64*** |
Persistence:
0.822
Half-life:
4 days
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