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Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

5,336.68

decreased by 310.75

1 Week

5,960.49

increased by 313.06

1 Month

9,043.52

increased by 3,396.09

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:41 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 24, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3459
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1725
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8275
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.6503
γ2-0.6313
γ30.5177
γ4-2.0760
γ52.1923

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-