V-Lab
Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,739.57
1 Week
6,137.20
1 Month
7,563.52
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 69% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.03** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0605 | 14.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9186 | 778.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0418 | 6.66*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities