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Vicem Haivan Cement Jsc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, March 4th, 2026

1 Day

162.03

decreased by 13.54

1 Week

197.22

increased by 21.65

1 Month

268.46

increased by 92.89

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 05:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

03/03/2024

to

03/03/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vicem Haivan Cement Jsc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 11, 2011 to Mar 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~173286 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8950
αARCH0.1612
βGARCH0.8388
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-3.9688
γ24.4154
γ3-0.0829
γ4-3.2544
γ56.0699
γ6-3.3363
γ7-1.8000

1.000

Persistence

173286d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8950
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1612
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8388
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-3.9688
γ24.4154
γ3-0.0829
γ4-3.2544
γ56.0699
γ6-3.3363
γ7-1.8000

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days