V-Lab
Vicem Haivan Cement Jsc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, March 4th, 2026
1 Day
162.03
decreased by 13.54
1 Week
197.22
increased by 21.65
1 Month
268.46
increased by 92.89
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 05:14 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 2011 to Mar 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~173286 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8950 | |
| αARCH | 0.1612 | |
| βGARCH | 0.8388 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -3.9688 | |
| γ2 | 4.4154 | |
| γ3 | -0.0829 | |
| γ4 | -3.2544 | |
| γ5 | 6.0699 | |
| γ6 | -3.3363 | |
| γ7 | -1.8000 |
1.000
Persistence173286d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8950 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1612 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8388 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -3.9688 | |
| γ2 | 4.4154 | |
| γ3 | -0.0829 | |
| γ4 | -3.2544 | |
| γ5 | 6.0699 | |
| γ6 | -3.3363 | |
| γ7 | -1.8000 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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