Huckleberry ai Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
6,781.02
decreased by 481.01
1 Week
5,981.57
decreased by 1,280.46
1 Month
4,591.66
decreased by 2,670.37
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:11 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2018 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0444 | 8.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.1303 | 10.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8620 | 68.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0071 | -0.38 |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0444 | 8.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1303 | 10.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8620 | 68.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0071 | -0.38 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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