V-Lab
Horizon Technology Finance Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
4,356.16
increased by 54.84
1 Week
4,793.94
increased by 492.62
1 Month
5,804.17
increased by 1,502.85
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 2010 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4454 | 11.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1502 | 13.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8192 | 59.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0075 | -2.91*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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