V-Lab
Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
4,373.99
decreased by 81.25
1 Week
5,459.21
increased by 1,003.97
1 Month
6,867.54
increased by 2,412.30
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 273 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2457 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1741 | 10.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8234 | 61.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0748 | 0.50 |
| γ2 | -0.2349 | -1.30 |
| γ3 | 0.3316 | 2.74*** |
| γ4 | -0.3455 | -2.20** |
| γ5 | 0.2541 | 1.79* |
| γ6 | -0.0738 | -0.84 |
| γ7 | -0.0306 | -0.54 |
| γ8 | 0.0639 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
273 days
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