V-Lab
Haoxi Health Technology Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
397,194.80
increased by 114,775.20
1 Week
221,825.74
decreased by 60,593.86
1 Month
182,739.95
decreased by 99,679.65
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~173286 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5566 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.2507 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7493 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -14.3951 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 52.4133 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -60.2518 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 7.5222 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence173286d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5566 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2507 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7493 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -14.3951 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 52.4133 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -60.2518 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 7.5222 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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