V-Lab
Gtv Engineering Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4,932.28
increased by 35.02
1 Week
4,922.09
increased by 24.83
1 Month
6,521.88
increased by 1,624.62
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 27, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6269 | 1.84* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3013 | 7.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5295 | 8.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.7240 | 0.28 |
| γ2 | -0.0130 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -3.1853 | -1.76* |
| γ4 | -1.8009 | -0.76 |
| γ5 | 11.3479 | 4.18*** |
| γ6 | -8.7727 | -3.94*** |
| γ7 | 2.8935 | 1.44 |
| γ8 | -4.7889 | -1.75* |
| γ9 | 7.5635 | 2.33** |
| γ10 | -7.1476 | -2.33** |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
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