V-Lab
Gtv Engineering Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,131.42
decreased by 2,158.61
1 Week
5,565.14
decreased by 1,724.89
1 Month
4,795.48
decreased by 2,494.55
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 27, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6083 | 1.85* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2941 | 7.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5348 | 8.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.7736 | 0.30 |
| γ2 | -0.1083 | -0.03 |
| γ3 | -2.9237 | -1.54 |
| γ4 | -2.3573 | -0.95 |
| γ5 | 11.6852 | 4.21*** |
| γ6 | -8.6304 | -3.75*** |
| γ7 | 2.9559 | 1.31 |
| γ8 | -5.2560 | -1.80* |
| γ9 | 7.8206 | 2.55** |
| γ10 | -6.8290 | -2.51** |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
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