V-Lab
Gold Royalty Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3,856.18
decreased by 429.41
1 Week
4,076.17
decreased by 209.42
1 Month
4,623.64
increased by 338.05
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9541 | 3.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1400 | 0.13 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8600 | 0.81 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0801 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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