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Ceylon Grain Elevators Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

8,043.33

increased by 559.35

1 Week

8,131.33

increased by 647.35

1 Month

5,981.54

decreased by 1,502.44

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ceylon Grain Elevators Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 11, 1997 to Jul 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 200 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.9051
3.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1595
7.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8371
39.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.4573
1.49
γ2-0.3162
-0.51
γ3-1.6456
-2.14**
γ44.4810
4.84***
γ5-5.9393
-8.54***
γ63.1745
1.11
γ71.7833
0.27
γ8-2.5524
-0.42
γ9-0.2617
-0.13
γ101.6389
1.92*

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

200 days