V-Lab
Ceylon Grain Elevators Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
8,043.33
increased by 559.35
1 Week
8,131.33
increased by 647.35
1 Month
5,981.54
decreased by 1,502.44
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 1997 to Jul 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 200 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.9051 | 3.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1595 | 7.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8371 | 39.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4573 | 1.49 |
| γ2 | -0.3162 | -0.51 |
| γ3 | -1.6456 | -2.14** |
| γ4 | 4.4810 | 4.84*** |
| γ5 | -5.9393 | -8.54*** |
| γ6 | 3.1745 | 1.11 |
| γ7 | 1.7833 | 0.27 |
| γ8 | -2.5524 | -0.42 |
| γ9 | -0.2617 | -0.13 |
| γ10 | 1.6389 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
200 days
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