V-Lab
Ceylon Grain Elevators Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
5,309.56
1 Week
4,838.16
1 Month
5,240.57
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 1997 to Jul 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0001 | 0.34 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9611 | 321.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0776 | 2.36** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Ceylon Grain Elevators Ltd Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities