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Ceylon Grain Elevators Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

5,309.56

increased by 597.35

1 Week

4,838.16

increased by 125.95

1 Month

5,240.57

increased by 528.36

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ceylon Grain Elevators Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 11, 1997 to Jul 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.15
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0001
0.34
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9611
321.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0776
2.36**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days