V-Lab
Genesis Energy Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
5,832.69
decreased by 184.67
1 Week
6,369.34
increased by 351.98
1 Month
7,421.89
increased by 1,404.53
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 21, 2014 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3760 | 14.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.0802 | 5.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8623 | 34.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0111 | -4.10*** |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3760 | 14.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0802 | 5.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8623 | 34.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0111 | -4.10*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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