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Global Education Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

772.60

decreased by 100.71

1 Week

769.93

decreased by 103.38

1 Month

712.00

decreased by 161.31

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Global Education Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 13, 2017 to Oct 19, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2728
4.73***
αARCH0.1884
8.96***
βGARCH0.7965
32.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-1.0338
-1.36
γ20.6439
0.55
γ30.9009
1.21
γ40.1545
0.24
γ5-2.2434
-2.92***

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2728
4.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1884
8.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7965
32.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-1.0338
-1.36
γ20.6439
0.55
γ30.9009
1.21
γ40.1545
0.24
γ5-2.2434
-2.92***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days