Global Education Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
825.13
1 Week
779.95
1 Month
708.69
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 13, 2017 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 140% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.35 |
| αARCH | 0.0877 | 3.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8511 | 55.46*** |
| γleverage | 0.1224 | 3.37*** |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0877 | 3.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8511 | 55.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1224 | 3.37*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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