V-Lab
Gooch & Housego PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
8,488.21
increased by 2,817.39
1 Week
6,476.66
increased by 805.84
1 Month
7,735.64
increased by 2,064.82
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8090 | 4.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0910 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8727 | 48.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5256 | 4.50*** |
| γ2 | -1.0210 | -5.22*** |
| γ3 | 0.9298 | 5.93*** |
| γ4 | -0.6504 | -4.42*** |
| γ5 | 0.3576 | 2.55** |
| γ6 | -0.4329 | -2.91*** |
| γ7 | 0.5600 | 3.88*** |
| γ8 | -0.3454 | -3.08*** |
| γ9 | 0.1412 | 1.47 |
| γ10 | -0.4202 | -3.37*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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