V-Lab
Gooch & Housego PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
12,251.49
1 Week
10,670.10
1 Month
13,359.13
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 345 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0827 | 1.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8644 | 197.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1018 | 0.68 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3061 | 1.17 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6939 | 15.67*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
345 days
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